Transport is rarely the top issue for voters. In the UK, cost-of-living, immigration, and the NHS dominate polling and headlines. Yet these priorities mask the impact of transport on voting behaviour. While it may rank only mid-table in the stated priorities of voters, transport policy has a high impact on voter optimism.
Healthcare and immigration rank higher in polls, but transport confronts us daily. Delayed trains and heavy traffic confirm voters’ suspicions that the country doesn’t work as it should, while most people use NHS services infrequently and live nowhere near an immigration hotel.
Cost-of-living is a high priority and high salience issue, but only reinforces the issues within transport. Increasingly expensive train and tube fares and taxes on cars and fuel add further pressure to the cost-of-living crisis. Data from the IPPR shows that 74% of people think reducing travel costs should be a government priority (compared to 39% who think it already is).
Indeed, transport is more than just another policy challenge for government. Poor transport correlates to isolation, pessimism, and negativity, with real consequences for voting behaviour. A pessimistic voter base is fertile soil for populism as voters seek more extreme solutions to the stagnation.
“I think we’ve come to the realisation that maybe we need someone other than Labour or Tory, because it seems like we’re very stagnant.”
Male Reform UK Voter London.
The data behind the story
Tangible Failure
44% of people in Britain agree that ‘transport difficulties limit my everyday life’.[1]
Transport is a constant, not a flashpoint. For most people, a cancelled train or gridlocked road is a more frequent frustration than bigger macro-issues.
A nation of strangers
More than 3 million people in the north of England are at risk of social exclusion because of poor transport services.[2]
Poor transport reduces access to work, healthcare, and social life. Over time, this drives isolation and lower quality of life. These impacts are felt most by older people, young people without cars, and those living in semi-rural or peripheral urban areas.
Left-behind areas and populism
“Left behind” areas of England with poor rates of social mobility offer Reform UK the greatest electoral promise, according to a Financial Times analysis.[3]
The lower quality of life associated with poor transport links impacts the electoral calculus. Populist movements consistently perform best in pessimistic environments.
The incumbent Labour government need to start delivering a more positive message if it hopes to stop its declining approval rating – voters need a sign of progress and a reason to be optimistic. Small improvements to transport may seem trivial when voters are asked directly. But when felt every day, these changes accumulate into something far bigger: a renewed sense that the country is moving forward.
